Energy Trade and Cooperation Between the EU and CIS Countries

The report reviews key issues in energy trade and cooperation between the EU and CIS countries. It describes historical trends of oil and gas demand in the EU, other European and CIS countries and offers demand forecasts until 2030. Recent developments in oil and gas production and exports from Russia and Caspian countries are covered in detail leading to the discussion of the likely export potential of these regions. The key factors determining the production outlook, trade-offs and competition related to energy resources transportation choices are also discussed. The report also covers the interests and role of transit countries in relations between producer and consumer regions. The analytical section leads to policy recommendations that focus mainly on the EU.energy supply, energy demand, gas and oil resources, Caspian countries, EU, Russia, Caucasus.

Economic Feasibility, General Economic Impact and Implications of a Free Trade Agreement Between the European Union and Georgia

This study of the feasibility, costs and benefits of a free trade agreement between the EU and Georgia was conducted from July 2007 to April 2008 under contrach with the European Commission. The first meeting in Brussels in September 2007 with staff members of Directorates-General for Trade, External Relations, Economic and Financial Affairs, Internal Market and Services, Competition, Enterprise and Industry proved indispensable in our work on this report. During mission to Tbilisi in October 2007 the consultations were held with a number of ministries, research institutes and business organizations. We greatly benefited from consultations with the Ministry of Economic Development, Standardization Office, UN Team Leader for Economic Development, State Minister for Reforms Coordination, Ministry of Energy, Office of Deputy State Minister for European and Euro Atlantic Integration, American Chamber of Commerce, Georgian Chamber of Commerce, IMF, World Bank, EBRD, GEPLAC – Georgian European Policy Legal Advice Centre, Wine Producers Association, Federation of Georgian Businessman. The European Commission Delegation to Georgia provided us with extensive information, consultation on key policy issues and organizational support, for which we are very grateful. Several authors contributed to this study. David Dyker is the author of the introductory section (chapter 2) and the analysis of services sectors (chapter 7). Michael Emerson is the author of section on regional integration scenarios (charter 3) and he also provided very valuable comments on all chapters in this study. Sveta Taran, Peter Holmes and Michael Gasiorek are the authors of chapter 4 employing the Sussex Framework to study the impact of a free trade agreement. Michael Gasiorek and Peter Holmes also provided valuable comments on the CGE modelling section. Evgeny Polyakov, Andrei Roudoi as well as Nino Chokheli and Giorgi Pertaia contributed to the chapter on the institutional and regulatory harmonization (chapter 5). The team from the Global Insight including Andre Jungmittag, Vicki Korchagin, Evgeny Polyakov and Andrei Roudoi supervised the implementation of the survey and completed the analysis of the survey results (chapter 6). Also the same team from Global Insight contributed chapter 10 on sensitive sectors. The implementation of the survey of NTBs was conducted by CASE-Transcaucasus under the supervision of Tamaz Asatiani. The analysis of FDI flows and their likely trends following an FTA was prepared by Malgorzata Jakubiak, while the estimation of the potential FDI flows was conducted by Alina Kudina (section 8.4). The CGE analysis (chapter 9) was written by Maryla Maliszewska, who also acted as the project manager and the editor of the study. Finally, conclusions are a collective work of all the authors. Sierz Naurodski and Elena Kozarzewska provided an excellent administrative support. I would like to take this opportunity to thank them all for their cooperation, valuable contributions and comments.European Neighborhood Policy, free trade agreement, institutional harmonization, EU, Georgia.

The Development Gap Between the CIS and EU

Current report aims to identify major existing gaps in the five socio-economic dimensions (economic, human, openness, environmental, and institutional) and to reveal those gaps which could potentially hinder social and economic integration of neighbor states with the EU. To achieve this, the authors aim to assess the existing trends in the size of the gaps across countries and problem areas, taking into consideration the specific origin of the gap between EU15/EU12, on the one hand, and FSU republics, EU candidates and West Balkan countries, on the other hand. The paper is structured as follows: 1. A review of literature on the determinants of growth and development and the analysis of the catching up process between countries or groups of countries. 2. An analysis of the historic roots and origins of the development gap, and its evolvement over time. 3. A review of literature sources, draft analysis of primary statistical data, and qualitative explanations of gaps and divergences in selected development issues across the following socio-economic dimensions: level of economic development and convergence rates based on Real GDP (application of methodology testing ß and ? convergence to the set of countries analyzed); • quality of life and its components (poverty, inequality, health status and health care, access to fresh water and sanitation facilities, subjective perceptions of well-being); • human capital and labor market development, including level of education and public spending on education, its accessibility and quality, main differences in labor market development (employment participation rates and levels of unemployment, new jobs creation and labor protection legislation); • innovation potential, including R&D, information and communication technologies, and institutional environment; • openness and trade potential, including trade in goods and services, FDI stocks, trade regime and performance in logistics and infrastructure; THE DEVELOPMENT GAP BETWEEN THE CIS AND EU 15 CASE Network Reports No. 81 • environmental performance in terms of environmental stresses, efforts aimed at their reduction, and institutional capacity; • business climate, political institutions, and other institutional indicators (econometric analysis). 4. A test econometric analysis of development gaps across selected dimensions by using a Principal Components Method (PCM). The results are further presented in the form of ranks of countries analyzed reflecting their distances from EU15 in respective aggregate averages. Special attention is paid to gender-related development issues. Respective issues in human capital and labor market study, as well as variables included into PCM analysis were supplemented with relative gender data. Several conclusions finalize the report.EU, CIS, development gap, GDP, convergence, quality of life, human capital, innovation, environment, institutions, Principal Components Method